The Bedtime Routine: Productivity, AI, and Staying on Track

This weekend, I was reminded that even the best routines need a little flexibility.

At our house, bedtime with two young boys usually has a rhythm. Bath, snack, books, calm voices. Lights down. The whole thing is designed to gently land the plane after a busy day.

But this weekend, with my almost-three-year-old, the routine took a detour.

Before the books and quiet voices, we ended up wrestling on the bed. Nothing fancy. Just dad and son, laughing, rolling around, and making one of those little memories you hope you never forget. And I will admit, I was emotional that evening thinking about my little boy and how he will one day be a young man.

Eventually, we still made it back to the routine. Books were read. The room got quiet and bedtime happened.

But the best part wasn’t the schedule.

It was the adjustment.

That’s a pretty good way to think about the economy right now, too.

Coming into the year, there were solid reasons for optimism around global growth. And while the headlines have gotten noisier in recent weeks, a lot of those underlying supports are still in place. We’ve seen interest rates come down in many parts of the world, fiscal policy remains supportive, and (perhaps most importantly) we’re starting to see a meaningful pickup in productivity.

That doesn’t mean everything is calm.

Markets rarely follow a perfect bedtime routine. There are always interruptions. One of the biggest right now is geopolitical risk, especially in the Middle East, and its effect on energy prices. Higher oil prices can act like a tax on consumers and businesses. They may not derail the broader economic routine, but they can make the path more difficult.

The more interesting part of the story, though, is productivity.

Productivity sounds like an economist’s word, but it’s actually very simple. It means how much we produce for each hour worked. In plain English: are we getting better tools, better systems, and better results from the same amount of effort?

That matters a lot.

Over long stretches of time, productivity is one of the biggest drivers of rising living standards. It’s what allows businesses to grow without simply asking everyone to work more hours. It’s what helps wages rise over time. And it’s one reason the economy can keep surprising people on the upside, even when the headlines feel heavy.

Historically, productivity in the U.S. has grown at about 2% per year over long periods. There are stretches where it runs hotter and stretches where it slows down. But since the Covid pandemic, we’ve seen it pick back up, hovering around that long-term trend and, at times, a bit above it.

And looking ahead, there’s a growing belief that artificial intelligence could push that trend higher over the next decade.

Not overnight. Not perfectly. But meaningfully.

Now, that doesn’t mean AI is some magic wand.

It also doesn’t mean there won’t be disruption. There will be. We’re likely to see job displacement in certain areas, and in absolute terms those numbers can sound large. But it’s important to keep that in perspective. The labor market is constantly evolving beneath the surface. Every year, tens of millions of jobs are created and eliminated as businesses adapt and the economy shifts.

That churn is normal.

It can feel uncomfortable in the moment. But it’s not new, and it’s not necessarily a signal that the system is breaking.

For investors, I think the lesson is similar to parenting young kids: the routine matters, but so does the ability to adjust.

A diversified portfolio is the routine. It gives us structure when the day gets messy. Stocks can provide long-term growth. Bonds can provide income and stability. Alternatives may help broaden the sources of return. Cash can provide flexibility. None of these pieces works perfectly all the time, but together they create a system that can handle more than any one piece could handle alone.

And then there’s the adjustment.

If productivity continues to improve, we want exposure to the companies and sectors that benefit from better tools, smarter systems, and innovation. That includes technology, of course, but it doesn’t stop there. Healthcare, industrials, logistics, energy: these are all areas where efficiency gains can show up in real, tangible ways.

The opportunity is broad.

But it still requires discipline.

We don’t want to chase every shiny object.

We want to own durable themes thoughtfully.

At the same time, risks like energy shocks and geopolitical tension remind us why we don’t build portfolios around a single outcome. The world can change quickly. A good plan should be able to absorb a few surprises.